🎲 Wager

A probability-calibration + staking game. How well do you know what you know?

Rules

You get 10 yes/no questions about dice, coins and cards. For each question you must:

  1. State your probability (0–100%) that the answer is YES.
  2. Stake some of your 30 coins on it (whole coins, 0 or more).

Outcomes are drawn after you lock in — there is nothing to peek at in this page.

score = round(1000 × Σ stakeᵢ × (1 − (outcomeᵢ − pᵢ)²) ÷ 30)

outcomeᵢ is 1 if the answer was YES, 0 if NO; pᵢ is your stated probability as a fraction. A perfect 30 coins staked on certain truths scores 1000. Overconfident wrong answers are punished quadratically. After the reveal you see each question's true probability (computed by the game), your answer, your stake, the outcome, and the points you earned.

Question set seed: …

Your move

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